Changing Lateral Boundary Conditions for Probable Maximum Precipitation Studies: A Physically Consistent Approach

Abstract This article presents a conceptual study toward establishing new method for altering lateral boundary conditions in numerical model based estimates probable maximum precipitation (PMP). We altered an extreme event physically and dynamically consistent way regional convective-scale weather prediction (AROME-MetCoOp) by applying fields from global ensemble climate approach on EC-EARTH. Ten members are downscaled with the model, which results 10 different realizations of west coast Norway. show how position orientation moisture flow is between individual members, leads to relatively large changes values selected catchment. For example, modification transport scales several hundred kilometers impacts amount about 75% among members. Compared historical rainfall records, 62% 71% found two catchments. Although present restricted one particular that modified times approach, there considerable spread compared events past 40 years. conclude described step derive PMP given catchment; however, larger ensembles would have be considered estimate values.